Trump's 2016 cycle — the campaign promises made between 2015 and Nov 8, 2016 — were graded against his 2017-2021 first term by SEALED Press. The book documents 145 distinct promises with paper-trail receipts on every verdict. Final published tally: 36 KEPT, 42 PARTIAL, 48 BROKEN, 19 YOU_DECIDE. This directory page surfaces 81 of those promises (the chapter overviews + individual h4-level pledges from the book). For the remaining 64 sub-promises that appear in book prose without their own header — and for the full case-study receipts on every verdict — read the book at sealed2016.com.
Donald Trump made 81 graded campaign promises during his 2016 run. He kept roughly one in three.
His biggest broken promises: He pledged to drain the swamp and overhaul healthcare, but neither materialized as promised. He said he would impose term limits on Congress, refuse special interest money and self-fund his campaign, release his tax returns, keep Goldman Sachs employees out of government, appoint a special prosecutor for Clinton, and divest from his business interests. None of those happened.
He kept 28 promises against 22 broken ones, with 25 partial—meaning about one-third of his stated commitments came through.
We don't yet have donor data or vote-by-vote alignment for this cycle, so we cannot yet show which industries or donors shaped his decisions in office.
Narrated from FEC + Congress.gov receipts. Every figure traces to our data.
Trump kept 35% of 81 promises tracked for the 2017–2021 term. Each verdict is term-scoped, primary-sourced, and reviewed by three sequential reviewers (neutral · conservative · progressive).
Sourced from the SEALED Press 2016 case study (145-promise audit, paper-trail citations on every claim).
Donald John Trump (2016-cycle)'s campaign-promise scorecard: 35% kept of 81 graded. Source: campaignreceipts.com/r/donald-trump-2016
Primary-source promise tracker, campaignreceipts.com.
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Each promise below has its own Receipt — verdict, primary-source quotes, paper-trail pointers, and a case study. Linkable individually by Receipt ID for citation.
"NAFTA is the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere, but certainly ever signed in this country."
The original campaign rhetoric on NAFTA. Compare to USMCA agreement text (USTR archives) and TPP withdrawal memorandum (Jan 23, 2017).
"They are devaluing their currency, and there is nobody in our government to fight them… They are using our country as a piggy bank to rebuild China."
Campaign frame on China currency manipulation. Compare to Treasury currency-manipulator designation (Aug 2019) and USTR Section 301 dockets (2018 onward).
"Presidential Memorandum Regarding Withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations and Agreement."
The instrument that delivered the TPP withdrawal pledge, three days after inauguration. Federal Register document 2017-02281.
"Politicians are almost completely controlled by lobbyists, donors and the special interests… We will change Washington together and defeat the special interests."
Launch-stage anti-insider frame. The swamp metaphor hardened later; the original claim was literal — control via lobbyists and donors.
"Ethics reform will be a crucial part of our 100 day plan as well… I will impose a five year ban on executive branch officials becoming lobbyists and a lifetime ban on officials becoming lobbyists for a foreign government."
The operational version of the promise — two specific time-bounded bans. Compare to Executive Order 13770 (Jan 28, 2017) and its rescission by EO 13983 (Jan 20, 2021).
"Executive Order 13983 — Revocation of Executive Order on Ethics Commitments by Executive Branch Appointees. EO 13770 is hereby revoked."
Signed in the final hours of the term. Released every covered appointee from both the five-year lobbying ban and the lifetime foreign-agent ban. This is the receipt that turns the campaign pledge into a broken promise.
"All you have to do is take a look at Carrier air conditioning in Indianapolis. They left—fired 1,400 people. They are going to Mexico."
The Carrier promise as it was made. Compare to the November 2016 Indiana Economic Development Corporation incentive deal — roughly 800 jobs retained, the remainder moved as planned. BLS QCEW data for Marion County, IN shows the partial outcome.
"Under my plan, I will be reducing taxes tremendously, from 35 percent to 15 percent for companies… That is going to be a job creator like we have not seen since Ronald Reagan."
Campaign-stage tax pledge: 35% to 15%. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (Dec 22, 2017) cut the corporate rate from 35% to 21%, not 15%. Job growth in 2018-2019 was consistent with late-2010s trend; BLS CES series shows no Reagan-scale discontinuity before the pandemic.
"H.R.1 — An Act to provide for reconciliation pursuant to titles II and V of the concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2018."
The instrument that delivered the corporate rate cut. Final rate: 21%. The bill as enacted differed from the campaign pledge on rate, on permanence (individual cuts sunset, corporate cuts do not), and on scoring. CBO scored TCJA as adding $1.9T to deficits over 11 years.
"We have to repeal it and replace it with something absolutely much less expensive and something that works, where your plan can actually be tailored."
The clearest single-source version of the repeal-and-replace pledge. Three testable sub-promises: full repeal, full replacement, cost reduction. Compare to Congress.gov H.R. 1628 vote record.
"When I watch what is happening with some horrible things like Obamacare, where your health insurance and health care is going up by numbers that are astronomical, 68 percent, 59 percent, 71 percent…"
The premium-pain numbers are rhetorical anchors. Check against CMS rate review data and state insurance commissioner filings for 2016-2017 benchmark plans. The campaign claim was that the next administration would reverse this; CMS marketplace data through 2020 shows premiums rose then flattened, not fell.
"Senate Amendment 667 to H.R.1628 — Health Care Freedom Act. Failed: 49-51. McCain (R-AZ), Collins (R-ME), Murkowski (R-AK) voted Nay with all Democrats."
The single point of failure on repeal. The "skinny repeal" was the narrowest possible instrument that could have honored the pledge; it failed by two votes. No replacement bill became law during the term.
See who he kept his word to — and who he didn't. All 145, in the book.
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Donald John Trump's biggest donor industries are Individual / Retired ($6,600). Every dollar is tied to an FEC filing.
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