CampaignReceipts

Experimental · Read-only tracker

What the betting markets think will happen

People bet real money on politics. We show their best guesses here. A higher percent means more bettors think it will happen. That is all it means.

These are public betting markets. Not our data. Not a prediction. Not advice. The odds come from Polymarket, a place where people bet on news. We just show them. We do not endorse betting and we do not run these markets.

Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

  • Marco Rubio
    16%
  • JD Vance
    15%
  • Gavin Newsom
    15%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
    5%
  • Kamala Harris
    5%
  • Jon Ossoff
    4%
$623M tradedSee on Polymarket

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

  • Gavin Newsom
    24%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
    9%
  • Kamala Harris
    8%
  • Jon Ossoff
    7%
  • Josh Shapiro
    6%
  • Pete Buttigieg
    4%
$1191M tradedSee on Polymarket

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

  • J.D. Vance
    34%
  • Marco Rubio
    26%
  • Tucker Carlson
    7%
  • Ron DeSantis
    3%
  • Donald Trump Jr.
    3%
  • Thomas Massie
    2%
$654M tradedSee on Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election

  • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
    41%
  • Flávio Bolsonaro
    30%
  • Renan Santos
    17%
  • Camilo Santana
    4%
  • Fernando Haddad
    3%
  • Romeu Zema
    2%
$97M tradedSee on Polymarket

Next French Presidential Election

  • Jordan Bardella
    27%
  • Édouard Philippe
    18%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
    13%
  • Marine Le Pen
    6%
  • Gabriel Attal
    5%
  • Dominique de Villepin
    4%
$95M tradedSee on Polymarket

Peru Presidential Election Winner

  • Keiko Fujimori
    93%
  • Roberto Sánchez Palomino
    6%
  • Rafael López Aliaga
    0%
  • Carlos Álvarez
    0%
  • César Acuña
    0%
  • Vladimir Cerrón
    0%
$89M tradedSee on Polymarket

Legislation

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

  • December 31
    14%
  • September 30
    6%
  • June 30
    1%
$50M tradedSee on Polymarket

World & Policy

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

  • December 31
    69%
  • October 31
    56%
  • August 31
    44%
  • July 31
    33%
  • June 30
    20%
  • June 15
    7%
$275M tradedSee on Polymarket

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

  • Nicolás Maduro
    74%
  • Delcy Rodríguez
    13%
  • María Corina Machado
    4%
  • Jorge Rodríguez
    1%
  • No Head of State
    1%
  • Edmundo González
    1%
$90M tradedSee on Polymarket

Fed Decision in June?

  • No change
    99%
  • 25 bps increase
    1%
  • 25 bps decrease
    1%
  • 50+ bps decrease
    0%
  • 50+ bps increase
    0%
$75M tradedSee on Polymarket

Iran closes its airspace by...?

  • June 15
    100%
  • June 30
    100%
  • June 8
    100%
$67M tradedSee on Polymarket

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

  • July 31
    56%
  • June 30
    38%
  • June 21
    19%
  • June 15
    5%
  • June 10
    1%
$44M tradedSee on Polymarket

Source: Polymarket public Gamma API · odds updated about every 10 minutes · snapshot Tue, 09 Jun 2026 16:56:23 GMT